Two recent studies led by Arizona State University (ASU) researchers and their international partners are providing new insights into the Arctic’s changing environment as climate change continues to affect the region.
The first study, co-authored by Peter Schlosser, director of ASU’s Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory, found that the circulation of warm Atlantic waters in the Arctic Ocean has remained stable for nearly 30 years. This research, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, involved analyzing tracer data from 21 Arctic expeditions between 1987 and 2013. The team used tritium and helium measurements to track how Atlantic water moves through the Arctic. Their findings showed that despite significant warming at the surface, there were no major changes in the speed or route of this deep ocean current during the study period.
“These findings remind us that resilience in one part of the system does not offset fragility in another,” said Schlosser. “Understanding these dynamics is essential if we are to make timely and meaningful decisions to protect critical parts of the Earth system in the face of accelerating planetary change.”
The second study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, focused on a region known as the “Last Ice Area,” which is located north of Greenland and Canada. Led by researchers from McGill University, Columbia University, and ASU—including Stephanie Pfirman from ASU’s School of Ocean Futures—the study warns that this area could lose its thick, multiyear sea ice as early as the 2060s under current warming trends. Using advanced modeling techniques that account for narrow Arctic waterways such as Nares Strait and channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, researchers found these routes are already exporting large amounts of ice out of the Last Ice Area.
“It is easy to misinterpret these findings as showing that protecting the Last Ice Area is a lost cause, but they actually emphasize the need for action now to stabilize temperatures to ensure that the Arctic and other regions maintain critical habitats,” Pfirman said.
The Last Ice Area has been considered a potential refuge for species dependent on sea ice, such as polar bears and walruses. However, increasing sea ice mobility and earlier collapse of protective ice arches may threaten this sanctuary.
Both studies highlight differences within Arctic systems: while some deep ocean currents appear resilient against rapid changes, surface ice remains highly vulnerable. Schlosser emphasized this point: “The Arctic, driven by human activities, is changing at an unprecedented pace and is sending us signals that action to respond to the impact of this change is needed on a time scale as fast as we have ever seen before. Given this situation, we must move beyond short-term responses and commit to systemic solutions to preserve the services the Arctic provides to vital planetary systems on local to global scales.”
ASU’s involvement in innovative research extends beyond environmental science. The university was named number one in innovation for eight consecutive years by U.S. News & World Report based on nominations from academic leaders nationwide. It also ranked highly for undergraduate business, nursing, and engineering programs according to the annual Best Colleges rankings.
This story also appears in ASU’s Global Futures Futurecast fall 2025 issue.
