SE Valley Times

The prospect of a new presidential administration has sparked discussions among top economists about the future economic landscape. Key topics include tariffs, immigration, potential deportation, tax cuts, and reduced renewable energy credits.

Arizona and Phoenix are currently among the top 10 U.S. labor markets for 2024. The region is gaining recognition as a hub for high tech and regional distribution, with nationalism potentially encouraging more foreign onshore investment in Arizona.

Dennis L. Hoffman, director of Arizona State University’s Office of the University Economist and the L. William Seidman Research Institute at ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business, expressed optimism: “Hopefully this is a brand new ballgame for the country and Arizona,” he said during his presentation at the 61st annual Economic Forecast Luncheon in downtown Phoenix.

The event was sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business and PNC Bank. Dean Ohad Kadan highlighted ASU's achievements, noting that Poets&Quants ranked W. P. Carey as No. 1 in the U.S. for its MBA Programs for Entrepreneurship ranking.

Hoffman pointed out several challenges facing the national economy, including a slow business cycle and state-to-state migration declines. However, he emphasized Arizona's strengths: “We’re optimists. This is Arizona. It’s a great place to be.”

Hoffman's data showed promising trends: Arizona ranks ninth in job creation rate; unemployment remains low at 3.5%; wage growth is strong across various sectors; and five key industries contributed significantly to job growth in 2024.

He acknowledged that tight federal policy has impacted job growth but noted that approximately 68,800 jobs were created in 2024, with projections slightly lower for 2025 due to inflation pressures.

Regarding interest rates, Hoffman stated they are affecting housing sales volume but not prices: “Agents make their money off of quantity... people involved in real estate transactions depend on sales volume.”

Daniel J. Brady from PNC Bank commented on inflation management: “We’ve really changed the regime... We’re now in this great cutting cycle where banks are cutting their interest rates.”

Hoffman also addressed potential impacts of president-elect Donald Trump’s policies on Arizona's economy concerning tariffs and immigration: “There is huge rhetoric on deportation... I don’t think it’s going to happen in the mass wave that some rhetoric suggests.”

Concluding his presentation, Hoffman described Arizona's economic position as "solid," citing strong unemployment figures, population growth, retail strength, and increasing demand for housing despite rising rents.